Recession & Nowcasting

Near-term recession probability, real-time growth nowcasts, and the Sahm-rule unemployment gap for South Korea.

Recession Probability

South Korea Near-Term Recession ProbabilityEstrella and Mishkin (1998); Engstrom and Sharpe (2019)KRRECPDaily

Sahm Rule

South Korea Sahm-Rule Recession IndicatorSahm (2019)KRSAHMMonthly

ADS Business Conditions Index

South Korea ADS Business Conditions IndexAruoba, Diebold, and Scotti (2009)KRADSMonthly

Employment Elasticity of Growth

South Korea Time-Varying Employment Elasticity of GrowthKapsos (2005); Crivelli, Furceri, and Toujas-Bernaté (2012)KREMPELQuarterly

GDP Nowcast

South Korea Real-GDP NowcastGiannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008); Bańbura and Modugno (2014); Mariano and Murasawa (2003); Bok, Caratelli, Giannone, Sbordone, and Tambalotti (2018)KRGDPNOWMonthly