Interest Rates
The secured overnight financing rate and interest on reserve balances, the two legs behind the reserve-conditions spread, together with the ten-year real interest rate, the shadow federal funds rate that stands in for the policy rate while it sits at its floor, the natural rate of interest with the trend-growth and gap states estimated alongside it, and the policy stance gap that sets the observed policy rate beside a mechanically computed rule benchmark.
U.S. Money-Market & Real Rates
U.S. Federal Funds Rates
U.S. Shadow Federal Funds Rate
U.S. Natural Rate and Output Gap
- U.S. Natural Rate of InterestHolston, Laubach, and Williams (2023); Laubach and Williams (2003)USNRQuarterly
- U.S. Real Rate GapHolston, Laubach, and Williams (2023); Laubach and Williams (2003)USRRGAPQuarterly
- U.S. Trend Growth Rate of Potential OutputHolston, Laubach, and Williams (2023); Laubach and Williams (2003)USTRGDPQuarterly
- U.S. Output GapHolston, Laubach, and Williams (2023); Laubach and Williams (2003)USGDPGAPQuarterly